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Future-Back Threat Modeling: A Foresight-Driven Security Framework

A new framework called Future-Back Threat Modeling (FBTM) aims to improve cybersecurity by predicting potential threats from emerging technologies and tactics. Unlike traditional threat modeling, which focuses on known weaknesses, FBTM starts with envisioned future threats and works backward to identify vulnerabilities in current defenses. This approach is designed to reveal 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns', including new tactics and techniques that adversaries may use
A new framework called Future-Back Threat Modeling (FBTM) aims to improve cybersecurity by predicting potential threats from emerging technologies and tactics. Unlike traditional threat modeling, which focuses on known weaknesses, FBTM starts with envisioned future threats and works backward to identify vulnerabilities in current defenses. This approach is designed to reveal 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns', including new tactics and techniques that adversaries may use. The goal is to help security leaders make informed decisions today to shape more resilient security postures for the future. --- Why it matters: This matters because traditional threat modeling often fails to account for emerging threats, leaving organizations vulnerable to attacks from unexpected sources. FBTM's predictive approach can help security leaders anticipate and prepare for these threats, reducing the risk of costly cyber breaches. Source: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16088

This article was originally published at: https://arxiv.org/abs/2511.16088